Presidential Power Rankings: Pre-Iowa Special

February 1, 2016 - Believe it or not, everything you've seen and heard about the Presidential race so far has been preseason ballotball. The regular season starts on Monday when Iowa voters go to their caucus sites. The playoffs start a bit later, once the two parties have selected their nominees and Michael Bloomberg has decided if he wants to jump into the race as a 3rd party candidate. 

So here we go, the first power rankings of the new year and the last one before voters actually start having their say. Please remember that these rankings are based on who we think could win, not necessarily who should win.

Go here to find the guidelines for the rankings. Basically, we rank according to polling data, fundraising levels, and Vegas odds. 
​1. Hillary Clinton (D) - 1st place in Democratic Division

Several months ago, we likened Secretary Clinton’s chances of getting the Democratic nomination to the Cleveland Cavaliers' chances of coming out of the Eastern Conference. Pretty much a sure thing. As of today, she leads in nationwide polls but much of her air of inevitability has been erased thanks to a charging Bernie Sanders. The Cavs are still in the lead in the east too, but that didn’t stop them from just firing their coach. Much depends on what happens in Iowa. If Clinton can somehow exceed expectations she’ll probably be able to survive a bigger loss in New Hampshire. If Sanders wins both early contests, this race could go on for months.
​2. Donald Trump (R) - 1st place in Republican Division

Several months ago, we placed Donald Trump at #7 in the power rankings with a two word explanation: “just kidding”. The next month we raised him to #2 on the list because we thought he would run as a 3rd party candidate. Long story short, Trump is now in the #2 spot, the Republican front runner, and on the rise. The 3/1 odds you can get for him winning the presidency are a far cry from the 200/1 odds you could have gotten back in July. I hope you bought in early, because those odds will drop even lower if Trump can maintain his leads in Iowa and New Hampshire.​
​3. Ted Cruz (R) - 1 game behind in Republican division (needs to win in Iowa)

They’re both running for president, and both biped Earth dwellers: before now those might be the only two similarities between Senator Cruz and Hillary Clinton. But we have found a new addition to this list: a profound hope that their impressive campaign infrastructures in Iowa can get out the vote on caucus night to defeat their closest partisan rivals. Clinton and Cruz both have formidable teams of volunteers throughout the Hawkeye state. In a different campaign year, this would have made them both big favorites. However, both Sanders and Trump are banking on new voters to increase turnout at the caucuses and overwhelm the best laid plans of their more organized rivals.
​4. Bernie Sanders (D) - 1 game behind in Democratic division (needs to win Iowa and New Hampshire)

We’ve been skeptical of Senator Sander’s chances prior to now. Clinton’s big lead in the polls and her institutional support seemed to be unbeatable a few months ago. However, now it seems that Sanders has a good shot of going 2 for 2 in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Since most states hand out their delegates in a proportional manner, it seems likely that both Sanders and Clinton will rack up large numbers of delegates as the primary proceeds. It’s certainly a race now.​
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​5. Marco Rubio (R) - 2 games behind in Republican Division (needs to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire)

The next four candidates on this list might as well all be knotted up together. At first it seemed like Rubio had a chance of finishing 3rd in Iowa (behind Trump and Cruz) and then finishing 2nd in New Hampshire (behind Trump) but recent newspaper endorsements have bumped Kasich into 2nd in the Granite State. ​
​6. Jeb Bush (R) - 3 games behind in Republican Division (needs New Hampshire) 

He keeps falling in the power rankings, but thanks to his $100 million war chest he’s not very likely to drop out of the race any time soon. When other less well funded candidates start dropping out, perhaps that will shake up the race in Bush’s favor.​
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​7. John Kasich (R) - 3 games behind in Republican Division (needs New Hampshire) ​

Kasich might wind up a kingmaker if he’s able to do well in New Hampshire and hang around long enough to compete in his home state of Ohio. Unlike many other early contests, the Ohio primary is winner take all (instead of proportional). This could give Kasich a sizable amount of delegates come convention time and he might emerge as a consensus candidate.
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​8. Chris Christie (R) - 3 games behind in Republican Division (needs New Hampshire) 

Like Rubio, Bush, and Kasich, Governor Christie needs a strong showing in New Hampshire to sustain himself in the race for the nomination. Its hard to say what exactly a “strong showing” means though and we're going to have to wait and see what the voters decide. A big win by Cruz in Iowa might hurt Trump enough to throw a little light on some of these New Hampshire hungry candidates.​
​9. Dr. Ben Carson (R) - 4 games behind in Republican Division (needs miracle in Iowa)

A lot can still happen in Iowa. So, if Dr. Carson has some unforeseen momentum in the state and does better than expected on caucus night, perhaps he could get back in the race. But right now the Carson campaign is trending down quickly.​ He's put all his eggs in the Iowa basket, so he very well might quit the race later in the week if he doesn't do well there.
​10. Michael Blooberg (?) - has yet to declare candidacy

The former Mayor of New York City has promised to run as a 3rd party candidate should Bernie Sanders become the Democratic nominee. 3rd party candidates don’t have a great track record of getting elected (Teddy Roosevelt finished 2nd place in 1912, but that’s about as good as it gets). But who knows, he wouldn’t be the first New York billionaire to exceed expectations in this year’s election.​