Presidential Power Rankings: Pre-sec primary Special

February 13, 2016 - It’s time to catch our breath. Iowa and New Hampshire have voted, and now we’re on to primaries in larger states (like Nevada and South Carolina). On the plus side, we’ve finally had enough candidates drop out that we can fit them all in our power rankings; however, the battle for the top is more confusing than ever. Let’s take a look at who is most likely to move into the White House next January.
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Please remember that these rankings are based on who we think could win, not necessarily who should win.

Go here to find the guidelines for the rankings. Basically, we rank according to polling data, fundraising levels, and Vegas odds. You might also want to check out our latest podcast (where we recap the Iowa Caucus and explain the term “superdelegate”).

​1. Hillary Clinton (D) 

Current delegate count: 468 (32 bound delegates + 438 superdelegates)

It seems odd that Clinton remains in the top spot despite narrowly winning in Iowa and getting her clock cleaned in New Hampshire. But here’s the amazing truth—she’s winning in terms of delegate total, and it’s not even close. Obviously she took more delegates for her win in Iowa, but she’s taking the same amount of delegates as Sanders even in New Hampshire (where she lost the popular vote by 20%). Once you add up all the superdelegates who have endorsed her around the country, she’s leading Sanders by quite a bit.

​2. Donald Trump (R)

Current delegate count: 17 (1,237 needed for Republican nomination)

Rumors of Trump’s demise in Iowa were greatly exaggerated. He stormed back in New Hampshire and more than doubled his nearest rival’s vote tally. The only chink in Trump’s armor is that his support represents a plurality of the Republican vote, rather than the majority. If his opponents keep dropping out and their supporters switch over to supporting one of his rivals, that plurality might not be enough to win the nomination.

​3. Ted Cruz (R) 

Current delegate count: 11

The winner in Iowa was unable to follow up with a win in New Hampshire. However, the Cruz campaign won’t suffer any negative press coverage because the media expected this. Meanwhile, Cruz is setting his sights on South Carolina and the SEC primary on March 1 (where he hopes states like his native Texas, as well as Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Virginia will all add to his total). He might do even better if he can convince Dr. Carson to drop out of the race so that he can collect Carson’s supporters. However, Carson is unlikely to do Cruz any favors after the two sparred over allegations of dirty tricks by the Cruz campaign on the night of the Iowa Caucus.

​4. Marco Rubio (R) 

Current delegate count: 10
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So much for Marcomentum. A strong 3rd-place finish in Iowa dwindled into a weak 5th-place result in New Hampshire. Rubio blamed a poor debate performance for the slump, so expect him to come out swinging at the next debate (on February 13). Perhaps the attention will be off him and he won’t have to deal with the same barrage of attacks that weakened him in the last debate. We’re not tearing up our Rubio lottery tickets just yet, but we are putting them back in the desk drawer with the other long shots.

5. John Kasich (R) 

Current delegate count: 5

A series of newspaper endorsements and a slew of fireside campaign stops helped Kasich finish a strong 2nd in New Hampshire. However, we consider him and Cruz two sides of the same coin. While the Texan conservative is thrilled that the race is headed south, the Ohio moderate doesn’t really see an upside in the campaign schedule until it goes to the Midwest in the middle of March.

​6. Jeb Bush (R) 

Current delegate count: 4

​“This campaign’s not dead!” was the inspiring quote that came from the former Florida Governor after he finished 4th in New Hampshire. We don’t see Bush overtaking Trump in the delegate total any time soon, but he’s also very unlikely to drop out of the race. He has been the most consistent voice criticizing Trump for rude behavior, and it seems likely that he’s going to take his delegates all the way to the convention before letting the billionaire get his hands on them.​

7. Bernie Sanders (D) 

Current delegate count: 53 (36 bound delegates + 17 superdelegates)

​Sorry Sanders supporters but the Vermont Senator’s meteoric rise up the power rankings is being weighed down by the gravitational pull of Democratic superdelegates. It seems counterintuitive that anything could be going wrong for Sanders after he won the New Hampshire Primary by 20% of the popular vote. However, votes and delegate apportionment are not always the same thing. Clinton’s superdelegates can tip the scales so that any defeat winds up a near tie. This is why the Granite State gave both candidates 15 delegates, despite the lopsided vote result. Once the race goes to a state where Clinton is polling well (like South Carolina), the superdelegates can turn a small Clinton victory into a rout. Sanders' only hope will be to do better among minority voters, and he’s signaled as much by having breakfast with the Rev Al Sharpton on Wednesday. If Sanders can once again shock the country by overtaking Clinton in the diverse Nevada and South Carolina primaries, then perhaps the superdelegates will have a change of heart. If not, we just can’t see a path to the nomination for Sanders.

8. Dr. Ben Carson (R) 

Current delegate count: 3

Delegate math is also a problem for Dr. Carson. The retired neurosurgeon has said that he has no intention of getting out of the race anytime soon. However, if he doesn’t do well among the religious voters in the SEC primary on March 1, it’s entirely possible that his calculations will change. Expect Ted Cruz to be on his best behavior towards Carson during the next debate—he will want to mend fences so that Carson will pass on his delegates to Cruz (should Carson drop out).

9. Jim Gilmore (R) 

Current delegate count: 0

Who’s this guy? Is this a typo? Nope—Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore has been in the GOP race the whole time. He was in the 1st debate last September, as well as one of the undercard debates a month ago. We don’t have a compelling narrative for how Gilmore becomes president, but we do have a great series of tweets that congratulate Gilmore for sticking around long enough to climb from 17th place in the race to 7th place by virtue of having so many other candidates drop out ahead of him.

​10. Michael Blooberg (?) - has yet to declare candidacy

We’re all out of declared candidates for the rankings, so let’s get to the speculative ones. The former New York City mayor thinks that if Trump or Cruz get the Republican nomination and Bernie Sanders gets the Democratic nod, both parties will have extremely polarizing candidates. In that case, Bloomberg could become the independent candidate who splits the difference and gets elected as a moderate. You can get 25/1 odds for a Bloomberg presidency on some betting sites, which is far better than a 200/1 Carson bet. However, betting is illegal and even if it wasn't, we wouldn't go anywhere near the 25/1 odds.

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