Presidential Power Rankings: December 2015

These are the final power rankings before the new year. Soon, voters will get to work and end all these months of interpreting polling data and analyzing fundraising amounts. The rankings committee is going to eschew the normal format and instead use this month's rankings to examine each candidate's strategy as we enter the home stretch.

Go here to find the guidelines for the rankings. Basically, we rank according to polling data, fundraising levels, and Vegas odds. Also, it's important to remember that these are predictions about who could win, not necessarily who should win...
​1. Hillary Clinton (D) - Strategy: Finish the primaries with plenty of talk about gun control.

As the primary season approaches the critical moment, Clinton is looking to finish off her only real Democratic rival, Bernie Sanders. To do this, she'll stump relentlessly about gun control. It's one of the few issues that she is more to the left on than Sanders, plus it gives Clinton the opportunity to excite the democratic base. She wants to make sure that the same voters who swarm to Sanders' rallies (and who deserted her for Barack Obama 8 years ago) will get excited about her campaign and get out the vote in the general election.

Best-case scenario: Win in Iowa and New Hampshire, then wipe out Sanders once the primary schedule goes through the South.
Worst-case scenario: Win Iowa, lose New Hampshire, lose the momentum and slog through the campaign as the media begins to doubt her electability.
​2. Donald Trump (R) - Strategy: Incite negative press coverage, complain about negative press coverage, bask in the glow of wall-to-wall press coverage.

Trump may have achieved the impossible--in light of his recent suggestion that all Muslims be banned from entering the United States, he created a wave of condemnation as bellicose as it is bipartisan. None other than Dick Cheney, Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan, and most of his primary opponents joined with Democrats to denounce his plan. Plenty has been written about the implications of such a xenophobic policy, but to understand just what Trump is up to with his announcement, you need look no further than #4 on this list. Ted Cruz is having a whale of a good month in Iowa, and Trump is concerned that he is being outflanked on the right by the Senator from Texas. His outlandish comments also draw a fresh wave of media criticism that he can use to keep the spotlight on himself, thus overwhelming the rest of the Republican field who have to spend all of their time denouncing Trump, rather than announcing their own plans for the country.

Best-case scenario: Win big in Iowa and New Hampshire, use momentum to organize in the rest of the country.
Worst-case scenario: Lose Iowa to either Cruz, Carson, or Rubio, then lose New Hampshire 8 days later after Bush, Christie, or Rubio solidify Republican establishment support.​
​3. Marco Rubio (R) - Strategy: Win, place, or show in Iowa and New Hampshire while hoping someone else takes out Trump.

Political wonks all around the country think the Republican race will come down to Rubio vs. Cruz. Rubio is an establishment Senator who polls well in both Iowa and New Hampshire, while Cruz is the outsider who could win Iowa and then do well in the so-called SEC primary a few weeks later. But the real elephant in the room (no pun intended) is that this theoretical endgame can't take place until someone gets rid of Trump.
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Best-case scenario: Finish well in both Iowa and New Hampshire, triggering Bush, Christie and Kasich to drop out. Then party bosses circle around Rubio as best candidate to take on Trump or Cruz.
Worst-case scenario: Cruz or Trump win big in Iowa; Trump or other establishment Republican wins New Hampshire.

​4. Ted Cruz (R) - Strategy: Draft closely behind Trump until just before the Iowa caucuses.

As stated above, Trump's recent announcement to ban all Muslims from entering the country may very well have been more targeted at Ted Cruz than any potential terrorist arriving on a tourist visa. Cruz has steadily risen in the polls in Iowa (he's now in 2nd place) and has benefited from Dr. Carson's recent struggles. Trump is trying to throw Cruz off his trail by basically daring the Texas Senator to disagree with him (and Cruz did just that, though in a far more muted way than other candidates). If Cruz continues to rise in the polls, expect Trump to take another shot to ward him off. Based on Trump's past behavior heading up the "birther" movement against President Obama, we wonder how long until Trump brings up the fact that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. 

Best-case scenario: Win Iowa, then do well in the SEC primary.
​Worst-case scenario: Draw more of Donald Trump's ire and be forced to show birth certificate.

​5. Jeb Bush (R) - Strategy: Remember that winning isn't everything.

Bush is still in the top 10 because he's still the $100 million man. He has no immediate reason to drop out of the race since his war chest is nearly double that of any other Republican candidate (the only real reason would be the innumerable dignities that must come from no longer being Donald Trump's favorite punching bag). Bush needs to win New Hampshire as much as #6 on this list does, but more than that, he needs to somehow create a viable strategy that doesn't rely on multiple opponents suddenly deciding they don't want to be president anymore.

Best-case scenario: Win New Hampshire and re-establish the idea that he is the most electable Republican in the general election.
Worst-case scenario: Can it get worse?
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​6. Chris Christie (R) - Strategy: Be Donald Trump in demeanor and win in New Hampshire

In 2012, many thought that Christie had a bright future as a moderate Republican who could win a general election. Just last week, he was endorsed by the New Hampshire Union Leader Newspaper (the paper's endorsement is widely credited with launching the stalled campaigns of both John McCain and Ronald Reagan in their primary seasons). Despite the good news, Christie needs to win over a skeptical conservative base that remembers Christie embracing President Obama after Superstorm Sandy. Others remember his even more controversial embrace in Dallas.

Best-case scenario: Win New Hampshire, then out-Trump Trump in the debates by criticizing Democrats and complaining about media bias.
Worst-case scenario: Trump, Bush, Rubio, or Kasich win New Hampshire.
​7. Dr. Ben Carson (R) - Strategy: Hope people stop talking about foreign policy

Pundits thought that the terrorist attacks in Paris, Mali, and California would hurt the political neophytes in the campaign. However, Trump has seen his numbers rise precipitously, and Carly Fiorina remains largely in the same position as before. Dr. Carson, on the other hand, has seen his brief lead in Iowa evaporate. A rapidly planned fact-finding trip to Jordan tried to show off his ability to learn about foreign affairs, but it appears Carson's momentum is gone. His only hope may be that he's still well-liked in Iowa and, as the campaign rhetoric becomes nastier, voters may warm to Carson's bedside manner.

Best-case scenario: Win Iowa by taking support away from Trump and Cruz.
Worst-case scenario: That's about it. Iowa or bust.

​8. Bernie Sanders (D) - Strategy: Hope Clinton implodes and there are no more terrorist attacks in the near future.

​The New Hampshire primary is Sander’s best, and possibly last, hope of winning the Democratic nomination. He appears to have peaked in national polls (trailing Clinton by 30%) but he remains close to her in the Granite State (he had a lead in November, but trails by a few points this month). Momentum is key to the primary season, and the media loves a good horse-race story. So, if Sanders can have a respectable showing in Iowa, then win New Hampshire a few days later, it might throw the nomination process into chaos. This is, however, becoming increasingly unlikely.

Best-case scenario: Win New Hampshire, build on momentum.
Worst-case scenario: More terrorist attacks thwart Sander's domestic-policy-heavy message and he's swept away.
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​9. Carly Fiorina (R) - Strategy: Stay on the main debate stage.

​Fiorina had a spike in popularity after the first couple of Republican debates. She may need some more impressive performances, though, if she is going to rise above the crowded field in the middle of the contest. Her “outsider” brand and her gender keep her in the top tier of potential VP candidates but it remains a mystery how she could get the nomination herself.

Best-case scenario: Fiorina may be the only politician who has sparred with Trump and come out ahead (during the second debate in an argument about her appearance). If she could somehow be the one to fell Trump, it might go a long way in improving her electability.
Worst-case scenario: Time is running out to make an impact.

​10. John Kasich (R) - Strategy: Hope Rubio, Bush, and Christie all quit.

Similar to Fiorina, Kasich could make a great VP choice. As the former governor of Ohio (an important swing state), his appearance on the Republican ticket would be helpful to his party. However, his attempts to become the establishment alternative to Jeb Bush haven’t really materialized. Bush has gone down in the polls, and so has Kasich.

Best-case scenario: Somehow win in New Hampshire.
Worst-case scenario: Accidentally tell reporters he doesn't want to be considered for vice president.