Presidential Power Rankings: August 2015
In an effort to handicap the race for the White House, these power rankings will attempt to show who is most likely to wind up on top. No value judgments here—this committee of one is just trying to read the tea leaves. To do this, we will use three empirical factors:
· What do current opinion polls say about the candidates? While these numbers go up and down based on current events and scandals, they offer a nice snapshot of the current mood.
· Who is raising the most money? Love it or hate it, presidential elections have become all about the cash. It is logical to assume that whoever is raising the most money is likely to have the greatest staying power.
· What does Vegas think? Voters can say anything in an opinion poll, but finding out where the sharps are putting their money will be particularly illuminating.
Without further ado, here are this month’s top 10 contenders for the U.S. 2016 presidential election:
1. Hillary Clinton - Odds to win according to the sportsbook: Even - Campaign fundraising: $48 million ($20 million more from Super PAC)
Congratulations to the former Secretary of State for being the first back-to-back #1 candidate on Ballotball's Power Ranking list. However, a few things have changed for her since last month. The State Department's investigation about her private email server will surely be a long term distraction (50,000 pages of emails are being released, one month at a time as they are reviewed and will provided a constant unwanted distraction for the Clinton campaign). Also, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is gaining in the polls, especially in the early primary states. Nevertheless, the odds are still heavily in her favor and make her the safest bet for next November's election.
Congratulations to the former Secretary of State for being the first back-to-back #1 candidate on Ballotball's Power Ranking list. However, a few things have changed for her since last month. The State Department's investigation about her private email server will surely be a long term distraction (50,000 pages of emails are being released, one month at a time as they are reviewed and will provided a constant unwanted distraction for the Clinton campaign). Also, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is gaining in the polls, especially in the early primary states. Nevertheless, the odds are still heavily in her favor and make her the safest bet for next November's election.
2. Donald Trump – 13/2 - $2 million ($0 Super PAC)
Have we gone crazy? Last month we dismissed Trump's campaign as a joke, now he's #2 on the list! The explanation for this has less to do with his chances of winning the Republican nomination, and more to do with his chances of running as a third-party candidate. If the primary season is akin to the regular season, then the general election next November is the playoffs. If Trump can secure a playoff spot for himself regardless of his regular season record, he'll be able to take his immense wealth (somewhere between $3 billion and $10 billion) for a spin. It's an advantage that puts him alone with Clinton, as the most likely names to appear on the ballot in the general election.
Have we gone crazy? Last month we dismissed Trump's campaign as a joke, now he's #2 on the list! The explanation for this has less to do with his chances of winning the Republican nomination, and more to do with his chances of running as a third-party candidate. If the primary season is akin to the regular season, then the general election next November is the playoffs. If Trump can secure a playoff spot for himself regardless of his regular season record, he'll be able to take his immense wealth (somewhere between $3 billion and $10 billion) for a spin. It's an advantage that puts him alone with Clinton, as the most likely names to appear on the ballot in the general election.
3. Jeb Bush - 4/1 – $11 million ($100 million Super PAC)
That's no typo. Former Governor Bush has over $110 million to play with and is the biggest reason that he is so high up on the power rankings. Sure, $100 million of it belongs to Super PACs that support him, and technically that means he's not allowed to handle any of it himself. But if you live in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina, prepare to see a lot of Vote for Jeb commercials.
That's no typo. Former Governor Bush has over $110 million to play with and is the biggest reason that he is so high up on the power rankings. Sure, $100 million of it belongs to Super PACs that support him, and technically that means he's not allowed to handle any of it himself. But if you live in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina, prepare to see a lot of Vote for Jeb commercials.
4. Scott Walker - 12/1 - Unknown ($20 million Super PAC)
Because of his relatively late entrance into the race, we're not sure exactly how much money Governor Walker has raised for his own campaign. However, a recent nod from the billionaire Koch brothers indicates that they have found their man and his coffers should enable him to compete with the Bush campaign. A national poll also showed Walker contending better against Clinton in a general election than most other GOP candidates.
Because of his relatively late entrance into the race, we're not sure exactly how much money Governor Walker has raised for his own campaign. However, a recent nod from the billionaire Koch brothers indicates that they have found their man and his coffers should enable him to compete with the Bush campaign. A national poll also showed Walker contending better against Clinton in a general election than most other GOP candidates.
5. Marco Rubio – 14/1 - $10 million ($17 million Super PAC)
Senator Marco Rubio's spot in the rankings dropped one from last month. He was widely praised for his performance in the first debate, but the polls have yet to give him a real boost. Interestingly, he seems to be one of the few GOP candidates to directly attack Donald Trump's recent idea to strip American born babies of their citizenship rights. Unlike Walker, Carson, Cruz and some others on this list, it appears that Rubio is trying to position himself as a Trump alternative.
Senator Marco Rubio's spot in the rankings dropped one from last month. He was widely praised for his performance in the first debate, but the polls have yet to give him a real boost. Interestingly, he seems to be one of the few GOP candidates to directly attack Donald Trump's recent idea to strip American born babies of their citizenship rights. Unlike Walker, Carson, Cruz and some others on this list, it appears that Rubio is trying to position himself as a Trump alternative.
6. Bernie Sanders – 12/1 - $16 million ($20,000 Super PAC)
Senator Bernie Sanders goes up a spot thanks mostly to media coverage and the poll results showing him gaining on Hillary Clinton. He still has a tremendous fundraising disadvantage, as well as a lack of institutional support. Check here for a count of current governor, senator, and congressional endorsements for all the candidates (spoiler alert: so far Clinton has 310 and Sanders has 0)
Senator Bernie Sanders goes up a spot thanks mostly to media coverage and the poll results showing him gaining on Hillary Clinton. He still has a tremendous fundraising disadvantage, as well as a lack of institutional support. Check here for a count of current governor, senator, and congressional endorsements for all the candidates (spoiler alert: so far Clinton has 310 and Sanders has 0)
7. Dr. Ben Carson - 40/1 - $10 million ($7 million Super PAC)
Dr. Carson leapfrogs Senator Ted Cruz in this month's rankings thanks in part to a strong response to his debate performance in Cleveland and new polls showing him gaining in the Iowa polls, a state which is vital to his election strategy. He is also trying to get some of the attention that Donald Trump is getting by visiting the US-Mexico border.
Dr. Carson leapfrogs Senator Ted Cruz in this month's rankings thanks in part to a strong response to his debate performance in Cleveland and new polls showing him gaining in the Iowa polls, a state which is vital to his election strategy. He is also trying to get some of the attention that Donald Trump is getting by visiting the US-Mexico border.
8. Ted Cruz – 50/1 - $14 million ($39 million Super PAC)
Senator Cruz has the same Vegas odds as Dr. Carson, but a lot more money. He's supported Trump's idea to end automatic citizenship for newborns, but he has yet to break out in any new polls.
Senator Cruz has the same Vegas odds as Dr. Carson, but a lot more money. He's supported Trump's idea to end automatic citizenship for newborns, but he has yet to break out in any new polls.
9. Some other Democrat
Vice President Biden has not officially entered the race but he's still given generous 16/1 odds by Vegas. This is better than Former Governor Martin O'Malley's 40/1 odds, or former Vice President Al Gore's 150/1. In any case, the prospect of anyone other than Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination became slightly more likely with the ongoing email investigation saga. Some, unnamed Democratic establishment candidate rose from 10 to 9 on the power rankings since last month.
Vice President Biden has not officially entered the race but he's still given generous 16/1 odds by Vegas. This is better than Former Governor Martin O'Malley's 40/1 odds, or former Vice President Al Gore's 150/1. In any case, the prospect of anyone other than Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination became slightly more likely with the ongoing email investigation saga. Some, unnamed Democratic establishment candidate rose from 10 to 9 on the power rankings since last month.
10. Carly Fiorina - 66/1 - $2 million ($3.5 million Super PAC)
The only new face in the power rankings this month is former HP CEO Carly Fiorina. While Ballotball.com does not take a position on who won the Cleveland debate earlier this month, it was nearly unanimous in the rest of the media landscape that Ms. Fiorina was a big winner. Her relatively modest fundraising efforts is buoyed by a completely unscientific gut feeling that she is the most likely Vice Presidential candidate for any victorious GOP candidate.
The only new face in the power rankings this month is former HP CEO Carly Fiorina. While Ballotball.com does not take a position on who won the Cleveland debate earlier this month, it was nearly unanimous in the rest of the media landscape that Ms. Fiorina was a big winner. Her relatively modest fundraising efforts is buoyed by a completely unscientific gut feeling that she is the most likely Vice Presidential candidate for any victorious GOP candidate.
Dropped from the rankings
Senator Rand Paul probably shouldn't have been ranked as highly as #5 in last month's rankings. Leaving him off this week's list should be considered as compensation to average out that mistake. His fund raising efforts and Vegas odds are greater than Ms. Fiorina's but it is hard to think that any Republican's would put Paul on their ticket after he sparred with several of them during the Cleveland debate.