The brexit
UK voters decide whether they want to leave europe behind
May 18, 2016 – We are just about half way through the campaign season for a British referendum that could change the fate of the entire European continent. Starting on April 15 and continuing until voting day on June 23, Britons are debating whether or not they want to stay in the European Union. Ever since the conclusion of World War II, Europe has been integrating their markets and forming strategic alliances to bind the whole continent together, and there are fears that this referendum, dubbed the Brexit, will put a stop to that forward momentum.
During the last election, Prime Minister David Cameron, himself opposed to leaving the EU, promised to put a referendum before the people to settle the issue once and for all. Cameron’s Conservative party is split over the issue and so this question is threatening to derail the government’s unity. Battle lines have been drawn with Cameron finding allies among British business groups, and most of the political leadership in the Labor and Liberal Democratic Party. Meanwhile, those in favor of leaving Europe include the flamboyant former mayor of London Boris Johnson, over 130 Conservative MPs, and UKIP, the British Independence Party which has favored pulling up the drawbridge across the English Channel for some time now.
The referendum process is a fascinating example of direct democracy. The April 15 – June 23rd window opens the election cycle. During this time, interested party’s can start their own “campaigns” which will be given some public funding in order to organize and buy advertising. However, these aren’t the plush war chests that mark American elections. No super PACs here. Each campaign is given £600,000 by the government, and each is allowed to raise at most £7 million more from private donations. That’s the hard cap on political fundraising.
As to the question at hand, it’s somewhat hard to parse exactly what would happen if the UK voted for the Brexit. The EU doesn’t affect military strategy, as Britain will remain in NATO. And it won’t affect your exchange rate when you convert your dollars to Euros, since Britain has never been interested in giving up their pound notes. (The idea of kicking the queen’s image of their currency in favor of some pan-European architectural design is a nonstarter in many a London tavern.)
During the last election, Prime Minister David Cameron, himself opposed to leaving the EU, promised to put a referendum before the people to settle the issue once and for all. Cameron’s Conservative party is split over the issue and so this question is threatening to derail the government’s unity. Battle lines have been drawn with Cameron finding allies among British business groups, and most of the political leadership in the Labor and Liberal Democratic Party. Meanwhile, those in favor of leaving Europe include the flamboyant former mayor of London Boris Johnson, over 130 Conservative MPs, and UKIP, the British Independence Party which has favored pulling up the drawbridge across the English Channel for some time now.
The referendum process is a fascinating example of direct democracy. The April 15 – June 23rd window opens the election cycle. During this time, interested party’s can start their own “campaigns” which will be given some public funding in order to organize and buy advertising. However, these aren’t the plush war chests that mark American elections. No super PACs here. Each campaign is given £600,000 by the government, and each is allowed to raise at most £7 million more from private donations. That’s the hard cap on political fundraising.
As to the question at hand, it’s somewhat hard to parse exactly what would happen if the UK voted for the Brexit. The EU doesn’t affect military strategy, as Britain will remain in NATO. And it won’t affect your exchange rate when you convert your dollars to Euros, since Britain has never been interested in giving up their pound notes. (The idea of kicking the queen’s image of their currency in favor of some pan-European architectural design is a nonstarter in many a London tavern.)
Former London Mayor Boris Johnson and Donald Trump may not agree on much, but they do both support the UK leaving the EU.
If you’re in favor of leaving Europe you’d likely rely on an argument that stresses the democratic illegitimacy of EU policies. After all, why should British citizens have their immigration and trade policies dictated to them by the 27 other EU countries. There’s also the issue of economic fairness to consider. After all, the EU collects revenue from all its member countries, but the UK is one of only 10 nations which puts more into European coffers than it gets back in return. Perhaps the most controversial element of this discussion revolves around immigration.
Currently, any EU citizen can move to the UK without a visa and since people tend to travel to places with higher standards of living, many Eastern Europeans have done just that. The spectre of the “Polish plumber” is often brought up to rally nationalistic fervor. These outsiders are seen as taking British jobs because they’re willing to work for lower wages and then they send those wages back to their home countries instead of spending them domestically. The darker aspects of this argument surround the fear of terrorism and the idea that EU immigration rules allow suspicious Syrian refugees into the country without the British people’s consent.
Currently, any EU citizen can move to the UK without a visa and since people tend to travel to places with higher standards of living, many Eastern Europeans have done just that. The spectre of the “Polish plumber” is often brought up to rally nationalistic fervor. These outsiders are seen as taking British jobs because they’re willing to work for lower wages and then they send those wages back to their home countries instead of spending them domestically. The darker aspects of this argument surround the fear of terrorism and the idea that EU immigration rules allow suspicious Syrian refugees into the country without the British people’s consent.
President Barack Obama courted controversy when he backed Prime Minister David Cameron's hopes to stay in the EU.
Those who feel that the UK is stronger in Europe, see things dramatically differently. They believe that there a bureaucratic problems which such a vast endeavor, but the pros substantially outweigh the cons. For starters, as one of the largest members of the EU, the UK gets to wield a considerable influence in how the continent conducts its business. If left on its own, the UK’s power to negotiate deals with foreign markets would plummet.
They also see the transitional cost of leaving to be extreme. All the Europeans living in the UK might have to pick up and leave, and all the British citizens who have moved to their dream villas in Spain and France might have to come home. Both imports and exports will become more expensive when travelling to the continent and the modest bill from the Polish plumber will become more spendy when he goes home to Krakow and now you have to pay a British person to unclog your sink. A study by the OECD put the average cost of all these destabilizing economic factors at £5000 per household.
So which side will win on June 23rd? Well, there’s still plenty of time left to campaign. However polls seem to indicate a small advantage to side wishing to stay in the EU, and betting websites have the same side as a 2/1 favorite. So perhaps this is all much ado about nothing. However the British have perennially been distrustful of their European neighbors and sentiments of going it alone are unlikely to disappear overnight.
They also see the transitional cost of leaving to be extreme. All the Europeans living in the UK might have to pick up and leave, and all the British citizens who have moved to their dream villas in Spain and France might have to come home. Both imports and exports will become more expensive when travelling to the continent and the modest bill from the Polish plumber will become more spendy when he goes home to Krakow and now you have to pay a British person to unclog your sink. A study by the OECD put the average cost of all these destabilizing economic factors at £5000 per household.
So which side will win on June 23rd? Well, there’s still plenty of time left to campaign. However polls seem to indicate a small advantage to side wishing to stay in the EU, and betting websites have the same side as a 2/1 favorite. So perhaps this is all much ado about nothing. However the British have perennially been distrustful of their European neighbors and sentiments of going it alone are unlikely to disappear overnight.